“Odds” is a word that’s tossed around a lot at casino tables. In craps, the term could mean one of three things: First, it could refer to bets placed for or against the probability in craps of the shooter hitting the point after the come-out roll; second, it could refer to craps payouts, which—like all online casino payouts—are expressed fractionally as the money you stand to win over the money you stand to lose; finally, “craps odds” could refer to the likelihood of winning or losing a bet. In this section, we'll cover all three meanings of “craps odds” in turn.

The Real Meaning of “Craps Odds”

The biggest mistake new craps players make when they consider probability in craps is they assume their preferred bet is “due.” Sorry to say, the dice don't care if you've made dozens of losing Hard Way bets. When we say the odds of losing a Hard Way 4 bet are 8:1 we're not saying you can expect to win once out of every eight times; we're telling you that every time the shooter rolls the dice you have the same one in eight chance that they’ll turn up two 4s. Sit at the table through hundreds of the same bet, and the actual results won't always perfectly reflect the ideal probability in craps because odds are just a prediction based on likelihood of what will occur over time.

When we say “over time,” what we means is that you’d have to play for years continuously for any given probability in craps to equal the number of times a bet actually occurs. The reason for this is that, in a situation like craps in which there are a limited number of possible outcomes, as the number of occurrences approaches infinity overall outcome-to-outcome ratios begin to resemble the fractional probability that each outcome would occur. Mathematicians call this effect the “Law of Large Numbers,” and it applies to just about any situation in which you have a limited number of possible outcomes, but an unlimited number of possible occurrences. For instance, the basic probability that a baby will be male or female is ½. So, assuming there were no genetic mechanisms that caused more female children to be born, the overall number of humans that have been born historically would roughly be a 50/50 split. This doesn’t mean that if the first child ever born were female that the next child would necessarily be male, just that eventually over millennia it would seem that way.

The reason we’re using terms like “seem” and “resemble” here is that the Law of Large Numbers is a bit like an optical illusion. Yes, at the end of the day, the probability of a certain type of outcome might match the number of times it has actually occurred—again, over a very long time—but that doesn’t make “probability” and “occurrence” one and the same. Both are two different outcome attributes, “occurrence” being a historical fact and probability being a prediction. Going back to craps, then, the odds that you’ll win as many times as is likely is—like all casino games odds—only a projection; it assumes that you have the money to play forever, which we’re guessing, is probably not the case.

One final thing to note here is the difference between probability in craps, craps odds and payouts. When we say “probability in craps,” what we mean is the likelihood of each possible bet occurring expressed fractionally as the number of desired outcomes, or the number of ways you could win the bet, over the total number of possible outcomes. Compare this to craps odds, which like all online gambling odds, are the likelihood of each possible bet occurring, expressed fractionally as the number of desired outcomes over the number of undesired outcomes—or the number of ways you could lose the bet. Typically, probability in craps and craps odds are noted differently. Probabilities tend to look like a fraction, while almost all online gambling odds are written with a colon (e.g. the odds of rolling a 6 on a six-sided die are “1:5”).

This can get confusing because craps odds and payouts are both written with a colon. The only way to tell the difference if you don’t know much about the game is that craps payouts are typically posted in casinos and craps odds aren’t. If you do know a little about the game—which you will once you’ve finished reading this page—you can also differentiate them based on the numbers themselves. Craps payouts always reflect the casino’s House edge; so unlike craps odds, the numbers in craps payouts don’t add up to the total number of possible outcomes. So, for instance, if there were a casino dice game that only involved one die, the odds of your selected number occurring might be 1:5, but the payout might be 4:1 to account for the one unit of vigorish the casino takes from each wager. It’s that vigorish that you have to be wary of even if you play at an online casino with good payouts; and the best way to understand whether you’re getting a fair shake with craps payouts is to know what the game’s real odds are.

How Craps Odds and Payouts Work

Going back to our six-sided die example, gambling odds tell us that you have a one-in-six chance of rolling any one number. Again, this doesn't mean that's always the way the rolls will pan out. In fact, after you've played a few craps sessions you'll quickly learn to expect the unexpected.

This element of chance is what makes the game so exciting for so many people, and so frustrating for so many others. Casino games odds can tell you what statistically should happen, but they can't tell you what will happen. That said, understanding casino games odds can still go a long way toward improving your betting strategy. To demonstrate, let's compare one of the best and one of the worst bets in craps: The initial Pass bet is very popular despite the fact that it only pays even money. Why? Because it also offers near even odds (a 251:244 online casino payout to be exact). Alternately a single-roll bet on 2 pays significantly better, but only persistent and/or lucky players will ever see it pay at all thanks to its 35:1 payout odds.

Odds-wise the best bet on a craps table—even when you play at an online casino with good payouts—is the Don’t Pass Odds bet. Once the come out roll has been established, players with Pass/Come or Don't Pass/Don't Come rolls can increase their bets significantly by taking or laying Odds that the shooter will roll the point before rolling a 7. These secondary bets have a much smaller House edge. In fact, they have no house edge at all; in terms of all online gambling odds, they have a vigorish second only to that of blackjack and equal to that of Pai Gow: Zero percent in terms of online casino percentage payouts. Long story short, then, when you place a maximum Odds bet on a minimum Don’t Pass, you're playing with the best possible craps odds. So, although it may not be popular to play against the shooter, it’s always wiser to choose bets that you can win and not be cowed by everyone else’s opinion of you.

Quick Tip:

To increase their profit on the game, casinos do not pay actual odds. As we mentioned above, Pass bets offer slightly less than 50/50 odds of winning, but still pay even odds. And that hard to hit 2 bet? It pays 30:1. Buy and Lay bets are also good and pay their actual odds, but even when you play at an online casino with good payouts, the House will often add a 5 percent “commission” to all online casino payouts on these bets. Only the Odds bets mentioned earlier pay their actual odds without an edge or a commission, so if you’re into making money remember to play them whenever possible.

Online Casino Percentage Payouts vs. Real Craps Odds

The following chart shows all possible craps bets, their typical online casino percentage payouts, their odds-expressed online casino payouts, their House edges, and their real odds:

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